Originally posted 8/31/26

SEE BELOW FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES!!

I've finally completed my state-by-state individual & small group health insurance market analyses of the preliminary 2027 rate filings for all 50 states (+DC), so it't time to take a moment to check in and see where things stand overall.

There's some important caveats, of course:

Originally posted 6/26/26

via the Maryland Insurance Administration:

Health Carriers Propose Affordable Care Act Premium Rates for 2027

Proactive policies of the Moore Administration and General Assembly ensure that Maryland's individual premium rates remain among the lowest in the nation, in spite of federal pressures due to changing Exchange rules and continued lack of expansion of enhanced tax credits​

BALTIMORE – The Maryland Insurance Administration has received the 2027 proposed premium rates for Affordable Care Act products offered by health and dental carriers in the individual, non-Medigap and small group markets, which impact approximately 482,000 Marylanders and represents 19% of the commercial health insurance market.

Originally posted 7/13/26

Hoo boy. Via the Georgia Insurance Dept., I've acquired the preliminary 2027 individual market rate filings for Georgia insurers, and it's not pretty.

Unfortunately, all of the actuarial memos are pretty heavily redacted so I don't have a lot of useful details to post, but the bottom line is:

Originally posted 8/28/26

ACA exchange enrollment has dropped by more than 10% in Florida since Congressional Republicans allowed the enhanced federal subsidies to expire at the end of last year.

Initial signups during Open Enrollment were only down 4% vs. OEP 2025...but effectuated enrollment was 7.7% lower year over year in January, rising to 10.3% lower as of February.

That's over 440,000 Floridians who already lost healthcare coverage in just the first two months of the year...a number which has likely continued to climb since then.

Originally posted 7/28/26

Before I begin, it's important to note that ACA exchange enrollment has plummeted in Louisiana since Congressional Republicans allowed the enhanced federal subsidies to expire at the end of last year.

Initial signups during the 2026 Open Enrollment Period were actually up slightly vs. OEP 2025...but actual effectuated enrollment was 2.3% lower as of January...and then fell off a cliff in February, with enrollment dropping a stunning 26% vs. a year earlier. That's over 69,000 Louisianans who were priced out of coverage in just the first two months of the year:

via Wikipedia:

Medicare Advantage (technically "Medicare Part C" & originally called "Medicare+Choice") is a type of health plan in the United States offered by private companies as part of the original Social Security Act of 1965 that created Medicare. It permits a private insurance option that wraps around traditional Medicare. Medicare Advantage plans attempt to fill some coverage gaps and offer alternative coverage options.

Under Part C, Medicare pays a plan operator a fixed payment for each enrollee. The operator then pays for their medical expenses. Traditional Medicare directly compensates providers on a fee-for-service basis. Plans are offered by integrated health delivery systems, labor unions, non profit charities, and health insurance companies, which may limit enrollment to specific groups of people (such as union members).

Originally posted 8/11/26

ACA exchange enrollment has dropped by more than 11% in Montana since Congressional Republicans allowed the enhanced federal subsidies to expire at the end of last year.

Initial signups during Open Enrollment were only down 5.1% vs. OEP 2025...but effectuated enrollment was 7.6% lower year over year in January, rising to 11.4% lower as of February.

The effectuated enrollment numbers have likely continued to drop more since then (the raw numbers aren't that eyebrow-raising since Montana is a small state, population-wise).

Here's what this looks like visually, with both 2025 and 2019 (the last pre-COVID year, which didn't include the enhanced subsidies) included for comparison:

Originally posted 6/11/26

via the DC Dept. of Insurance, Securities & Banking:

DC Announces 2027 Proposed Health Insurance Rates

(Washington, DC) – The DC Department of Insurance, Securities and Banking (DISB) has received 181 proposed health insurance plan rates for annual review in advance of open enrollment for plan year 2027. The proposed rates were submitted for DC Health Link, the District’s health insurance marketplace, from CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield, Kaiser Permanente, and UnitedHealthcare.

The proposed rates apply to individuals, families and small businesses for the 2027 plan year. The total number of plans submitted decreased from 194 for the 2026 plan year to 181 for the 2027 plan year. Small group plans decreased from 167 to 157, while individual plans decreased from 27 to 24.

Originally posted 8/11/26

ACA exchange enrollment has dropped by 10% in South Dakota since Congressional Republicans allowed the enhanced federal subsidies to expire at the end of last year.

Initial signups during Open Enrollment were down 7% vs. OEP 2025...but effectuated enrollment was 10.5% lower as of February.

Here's what this looks like visually, with both 2025 and 2019 (the last pre-COVID year, which didn't include the enhanced subsidies) included for comparison:

Originally posted 7/28/26

Before I begin, it's important to note that ACA exchange enrollment has dropped in Colorado since Congressional Republicans allowed the enhanced federal subsidies to expire at the end of last year...although thanks to the state implementing fairly robust supplemental subsidies of their own along with (modest) Premium Alignment pricing, it's not nearly as dramatic a drop-off as in most other states.

Initial signups during Open Enrollment were only down about 2% vs. 2025..but effectuated enrollment began to drop immediately and has continued to drop every month since then.

As of June 2026, effectuated enrollment is down 8.4% vs. a year earlier, and is down 7.7% on average for the year so far. That's around 22,000 fewer Coloradans with ACA exchange coverage so far this year:

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