IRA

Originally posted 12/19/24

Colorado has around ~282,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 80% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~39,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 321,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 322,000 statewide.

Originally posted 8/29/25

Via the Massachusetts Division of Insurance:

Merged Market Summary for Proposed Rates Effective for 2026

The following tables depict the proposed overall weighted average premium increase and the key assumptions behind premium development for the merged (individual and small employer) market filed by insurance carriers as part of the Massachusetts Division of Insurance rate review process (for rates effective in 2026). This information is subject to change as the rate review process continues.

The Health Care Access Bureau within the Massachusetts Division of Insurance is currently reviewing these assumptions. This review process will culminate in a final decision in August 2025.

There are 711,563 consumers enrolled in merged (individual/small group) market plans (data as of December 2024).

Originally posted 12/22/24

Florida has over ~4.7 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 97% of whom are currently subsidized. I also estimate they have perhaps ~112,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's over 4.8 million people, or a stunning 20.3% of their total population. 1 in 5 Floridians are enrolled in ACA exchange healthcare coverage (assuming CMS's 6.6% net national attrition rate applies to Florida specifically, the actual number of current enrollees is more like 4.5 million, or 19% of the state population).

Originally posted 12/27/24

South Carolina has around ~632,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~36,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~668,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 623,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/04/25

Georgia has around ~1.5 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 93% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~30,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 1.54 million people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 1.44 MILLION statewide.

Originally posted 12/13/24

Michigan has around 531,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 91% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~64,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 595,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 556,000 statewide.

How did we get here?

Originally posted 1/21/25

California has ~1.98 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, over 88% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an estimated ~470,000 off-exchange enrollees. Combined, that's over 2.4 million people, or 6.2% of their total population.

Originally posted 1/29/25

Pennsylvania has around ~496,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 87% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~103,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 600,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 560,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/18/24

Idaho has around 117,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 86% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees, although the actual rate filings (summarized later in this post) put the off-exchange total at a much higher ~47,000.

Combined, that's 6.2 - 8.0% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Idaho, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 118,000 statewide.